Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder: crowd vs house
NBA · Thu Oct 22, 9:40 PM ET · House take 4.5%
Crowd vs House split
House take (median book margin): 4.5%. That is the vig you pay by betting at the house. Split = crowd price minus the house's no-vig fair price.
| Side | CROWD | HOUSE fair | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Nuggets | 27.0% Polymarket + Kalshi mid | 28.2% no-vig median | -1.2 pts |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 73.0% Polymarket + Kalshi mid | 71.8% no-vig median | +1.2 pts |
Who's cheaper: Denver Nuggets to win
House no-vig fair: 28.2%. Cheapest after vig & fees: HOUSEBetRivers by 0.2¢ per $1 payout vs CROWDPolymarket.
| Venue | Quoted | All-in cost / $1 |
|---|---|---|
| HOUSEBetRivers | +260 (3.60) | 27.8¢ +260 |
| CROWDPolymarket open | 27.0¢ + 0.99¢ fee | 28.0¢ +257 |
| CROWDKalshi open | 28¢ + 1.41¢ fee | 29.4¢ +240 |
Who's cheaper: Oklahoma City Thunder to win
House no-vig fair: 71.8%. Cheapest after vig & fees: HOUSECaesars by 0.9¢ per $1 payout vs CROWDKalshi.
| Venue | Quoted | All-in cost / $1 |
|---|---|---|
| HOUSECaesars | -278 (1.36) | 73.5¢ -278 |
| CROWDKalshi open | 73¢ + 1.38¢ fee | 74.4¢ -290 |
| CROWDPolymarket open | 74.0¢ + 0.96¢ fee | 75.0¢ -299 |
House moneylines
| Book | Nuggets | Thunder | House take |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOUSEBetMGM | +240 | -303 | 4.6% |
| HOUSEBetRivers | +260 | -333 | 4.7% |
| HOUSECaesars | +222 | -278 | 4.6% |
| HOUSEDraftKings | +240 | -294 | 4.0% |
| HOUSEFanDuel | +245 | -303 | 4.2% |
| HOUSEFanatics | +230 | -286 | 4.4% |
All-in cost = what you pay for a contract/bet that returns $1 if it wins, after Kalshi or Polymarket taker fees (the vig is already inside sportsbook prices). Lower is better. How we calculate this.
Last updated: Oct 20, 2026 1:20 AM ET. Prices move constantly; always check the live price at the venue.