Minnesota Timberwolves vs Miami Heat: crowd vs house
NBA · Wed Oct 21, 7:40 PM ET · House take 4.8%
Crowd vs House split
House take (median book margin): 4.8%. That is the vig you pay by betting at the house. Split = crowd price minus the house's no-vig fair price.
| Side | CROWD | HOUSE fair | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 49.0% Polymarket + Kalshi mid | 49.0% no-vig median | +0.0 pts |
| Miami Heat | 51.2% Polymarket + Kalshi mid | 51.0% no-vig median | +0.2 pts |
Who's cheaper: Minnesota Timberwolves to win
House no-vig fair: 49.0%. Cheapest after vig & fees: HOUSEFanDuel by 0.7¢ per $1 payout vs CROWDPolymarket.
| Venue | Quoted | All-in cost / $1 |
|---|---|---|
| HOUSEFanDuel | +102 (2.02) | 49.5¢ +102 |
| CROWDPolymarket open | 49.0¢ + 1.25¢ fee | 50.2¢ -101 |
| CROWDKalshi open | 50¢ + 1.75¢ fee | 51.7¢ -107 |
Who's cheaper: Miami Heat to win
House no-vig fair: 51.0%. Cheapest after vig & fees: CROWDKalshi by 0.5¢ per $1 payout vs CROWDPolymarket.
| Venue | Quoted | All-in cost / $1 |
|---|---|---|
| CROWDKalshi open | 51¢ + 1.75¢ fee (via NO) | 52.7¢ -112 |
| CROWDPolymarket open | 52.0¢ + 1.25¢ fee | 53.2¢ -114 |
| HOUSEDraftKings | -115 (1.87) | 53.5¢ -115 |
House moneylines
| Book | Timberwolves | Heat | House take |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOUSEBetMGM | -102 | -118 | 4.6% |
| HOUSEBetRivers | -108 | -115 | 5.3% |
| HOUSECaesars | -105 | -115 | 4.8% |
| HOUSEDraftKings | -105 | -115 | 4.8% |
| HOUSEFanDuel | +102 | -120 | 4.1% |
| HOUSEFanatics | -105 | -115 | 4.8% |
All-in cost = what you pay for a contract/bet that returns $1 if it wins, after Kalshi or Polymarket taker fees (the vig is already inside sportsbook prices). Lower is better. How we calculate this.
Last updated: Oct 20, 2026 1:20 AM ET. Prices move constantly; always check the live price at the venue.