Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions: crowd vs house

NFL · Sun Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET · House take 4.2%

Crowd vs House split

House take (median book margin): 4.2%. That is the vig you pay by betting at the house. Split = crowd price minus the house's no-vig fair price.

SideCROWDHOUSE fairSplit
Green Bay Packers39.2%
Polymarket + Kalshi mid
40.1%
no-vig median
-0.8 pts
Detroit Lions60.7%
Polymarket + Kalshi mid
59.9%
no-vig median
+0.8 pts

Who's cheaper: Green Bay Packers to win

House no-vig fair: 40.1%. Cheapest after vig & fees: CROWDPolymarket by 0.1¢ per $1 payout vs HOUSEFanatics.

VenueQuotedAll-in cost / $1Notes
CROWDPolymarket open40.0¢ + 0.72¢ fee40.7¢
+146
spread 2¢, $2,142 at ask
HOUSEFanatics+145 (2.45)40.8¢
+145
CROWDKalshi open40¢ + 1.68¢ fee41.7¢
+140
spread 1¢, $63,189 at ask

Who's cheaper: Detroit Lions to win

House no-vig fair: 59.9%. Cheapest after vig & fees: HOUSECaesars by 0.9¢ per $1 payout vs CROWDKalshi.

VenueQuotedAll-in cost / $1Notes
HOUSECaesars-161 (1.62)61.7¢
-161
CROWDKalshi open61¢ + 1.67¢ fee62.7¢
-168
spread 1¢, $18,666 at ask
CROWDPolymarket open62.0¢ + 0.71¢ fee62.7¢
-168
spread 2¢, $6,610 at ask

House moneylines

BookPackersLionsHouse take
HOUSEBetMGM+140-1643.8%
HOUSEBetRivers+135-1644.7%
HOUSECaesars+138-1613.7%
HOUSEDraftKings+140-1674.2%
HOUSEFanDuel+140-1674.2%
HOUSEFanatics+145-1754.5%

All-in cost = what you pay for a contract/bet that returns $1 if it wins, after Kalshi or Polymarket taker fees (the vig is already inside sportsbook prices). Lower is better. How we calculate this.

Last updated: Oct 20, 2026 1:20 AM ET. Prices move constantly; always check the live price at the venue.